Papers to Download

This page contains preprints written by Richard L. Smith.

The papers here were supported by one or more of the following grants. From NSF: DMS-9115750, DMS-9205112, DMS-9705166, DMS-9971980, DMS-0084375, DMS-0635449 (the SAMSI grant). From EPA: Cooperative Agreement CR-827737-01-0, Contract OD-5210-NAEX. From NOAA: "Statistical Assessment of Uncertainty in Present and Future North American Climate Extremes" (joint with Dr. Gabi Hegerl). From NIH/NIEHS: The environmental epidemiology of arrythomogenesis in WHI (PI: Dr. Eric Whitsel, Department of Epidemiology, UNC). From the American Petroleum Institute: Various consulting agreements since 2006. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of the above funding agencies.

Please email if you have difficulties accessing any of these preprints.

2022 Preprints

Discussion of meeting on Statistical Aspects of Climate Change.

2021 Preprints

Dependence of Short-Term Mortality on Fine Particulate Matter in the Population of Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries.

2015 Preprints

Public Comment on EPA Ozone Standard: New Time Series Analyses of the Relationship between Ozone and Short-term Mortality. Docket Number EPA-HQ-OAR-2008-0699, submitted March 17, 2015.
pdf file
Links to datasets and programs

2010 Preprints

Understanding Semsitivites in Paleoclimatic Reocnstructions. Submitted to Annals of Applied Statistics, under review. pdf file

Elementary Reconstruction of the Hockey Stick Curve: Discussion of paper by Li, Nychka and Ammann. To appear in JASA. . free download

2008 Preprints

Characterizing the uncertainty of climate change projections using hierarchical models, by Claudia Tebaldi and Richard Smith. To appear, Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis , edited by Tony O'Hagan and Mike West, Oxford University Press. pdf file

Hierarchical Models for the Effect of Spatial Interpolation Error on the Inferred Relationship between Ambient Particulate Matter Exposure and Cardiovascular Health, by J.L. Crooks, E.A. Whitsel, D.J. Catellier, D. Liao, P.M. Quibrera and R.L. Smith. Submitted for publication. pdf file

On the estimation and application of max-stable processes, by Zhengjun Zhang and Richard L. Smith. Resubmitted, August 2008. pdf file

Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models, by R.L. Smith, C. Tebaldi, D. Nychka and L.O. Mearns. Accepted for publication, Journal of the American Statistical Association. pdf file

Approximate Likelhoods for Spatial Processes, by Petrutza Caragea and Richard L. Smith. Preprint, Iowa State University and University of North Carolina. pdf file

2007 Preprints

R.L. Smith (2007), Air Pollution Risk. To appear in the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment, edited by Brian Everitt and Ed. Melnick, to be published by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. pdf file

Claudia Tebaldi, Michael D. Mastrandrea and Richard L. Smith (2007), Global Warming. To appear in the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment, edited by Brian Everitt and Ed. Melnick, to be published by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

2006 Preprints

D. Liao, D.J. Peuquet, Y. Duan, E.A. Whitsel, J. Dou, R.L. Smith, H.-M. Lin, J.-C. Chen and G. Heiss (2006), GIS approaches for the estimation of residential-level ambient PM concentrations. Environmental Health Perepctives,114, Nr. 9, 1374-1380. pdf file

E.A. Whitsel, P.M. Quibrera, R.L. Smith, D.J. Catellier, D. Liao, A.C. Henley and G. Heiss (2006), Accuracy of commercial geocoding: assessment and implications. Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations 2006, 3:8, doi:10.1186/1742-5573-3-8. pdf file

P. Caragea and R.L. Smith (2006), Asymptotic properties of computationally efficient alternative estimators for a class of multivariate normal models. Journal of Multivariate Analysis , In Press. pdf file

Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models. Richard L. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Doug Nychka and Linda Mearns. pdf file

Discussion of the paper "Deriving Bayesian and frequentist estimators from time-invariant estimating equations: a unifying approach" by Antonietta Mira and Adrian Baddeley. Eighth Valencia Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, Alicante, Spain, June 2 2006. pdf file

2004 Preprints

Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations, by C. Tebaldi, L.O. Mearns, D. Nychka and R.L. Smith. Geophysical Research Letters 31 L24213, doi:10.1029/2004GL021276, 2004. pdf file

Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles, by Claudia Tebaldi, Richard L. Smith, Doug Nychka and Linda O. Mearns. Journal of Climate 18 1524-1540 (2005). pdf file
Corrigendum (to be published, August 14 2005)

Asymptotic theory for kriging with estimated parameters and its application to network design, by Richard L. Smith and Zhengyuan Zhu. Preliminary version, updated November 2004. pdf file

Long range dependence analysis of internet traffic, by C. Park, F. Hernandez-Campos, L. Le, J.S. Marron, J. Park, V. Pipiras, F.D. Smith, R.L. Smith, M. Trovero and Z. Zhu. Submitted for publication, September 2004. pdf file

The behavior of multivariate maxima of moving maxima processes, by Zhengjun Zhang and Richard L. Smith. Final version published in Journal of Applied Probability 41 1113-1123. pdf file

2002/03 Preprints

Environmental Statistics course notes. Presented as a CBMS lecture series at the University of Washington, June 2001. Under revision for book publication. pdf file

The role of statistics in assessing the public health threat of air pollution. Invited talk at 54rd Session of International Statistical Institute, Berlin, August 20 2003. pdf file

Spatio-temporal modeling of PM2.5 data with missing values, by R.L. Smith, S. Kolenikov and L.H. Cox. Final version, May 2003, accepted for Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. pdf file

A higher order expansion for the joint density of the sum and the maximum under the Gumbel domain of attraction, by Amy Grady and Richard L. Smith. April 2003. pdf file

Statistics of extremes, with applications in environment, insurance and finance. Chapter 1 of Extreme Values in Finance, Telecommunications and the Environment, edited by B. Finkenstadt and H. Rootzen, Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, London, pp. 1--78 (in press, publication date August 2003). pdf file

Invited commentary: Timescale-dependent Mortality Effects of Air Pollution. American Journal of Epidemiology 157, 1066-1070. pdf file
(For the article being discussed, and the authors' rejoinder, please see Francesca Dominici's home page.)

Data analytic approaches for modeling specific pollutants in epidemiological studies. In Improving Estimates of Diesel and Other Emissions for Epidemiologic Studies, eds. M.G. Costantini, D.A. Kaden, A.G. Russell, J.M. Samet and J. Warren. HEI Communication 10, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, MA, pp. 153--160. pdf file
(For the full report, please go to the Health Effects Institute's web site, follow "Publications", and look for Communication 10.)

Trends in rural sulfur concentrations, by David M. Holland, Petrutza Caragea and Richard L. Smith. Revised July 2003. Tentatively accepted for Atmospheric Environment. The paper is not currently available online but for an abbrviated version click here.

A bivariate time series approach to anthropogenic trend detection in hemispheric time series, by R.L. Smith, T.M.L. Wigley and B.D. Santer. Journal of Climate 16, 1228-1240 (2003). pdf file of preprint, July 2002.

A statistical assessment of Buchanan's vote in Palm Beach county. Statistical Science 17, 441-457 (2002). pdf file of preprint.

2001 Preprints

A new class of nonstationary spatial models, by Montserrat Fuentes and Richard L. Smith. September 2001 (currently under revision). pdf file

Modeling financial time series data as moving maxima processes, by Zhengjun Zhang and Richard L. Smith. September 2001. pdf file

Commentary on EPA Particulate Matter Criteria Document, by P. Guttorp, L. Sheppard and R.L. Smith. July 2001. pdf file

Models and Computations for Nonstationary Spatial Processes, by M. Fuentes, R. Smith and S. Kolenikov. Invited talk at 53rd Session of International Statistical Institute, Seoul, Korea, August 22-29 2001. pdf file

Spatial Trends and Spatial Extremes in South Korean Ozone, by Seokhoon Yun and Richard L. Smith. Invited talk at 53rd Session of International Statistical Institute, Seoul, Korea, August 22-29 2001. pdf file

2000 Preprints

Measuring risk with extreme value theory, by R.L. Smith. Revised July 2000. In Risk Management: Theory and Practice, edited by M. Dempster and H.K. Moffatt, Cambridge University Press. Also published as chapter 2 of Extremes and Integrated Risk Management, edited by P. Embrechts. Risk Books, London, 19-35. pdf file

Bayesian risk analysis, by Richard L. Smith and Dougal J. Goodman. Chapter 17 of Extremes and Integrated Risk Management, edited by P. Embrechts. Risk Books, London, 235-251. pdf file

Regression models for air pollution and daily mortality: Analysis of data from Birmingham, Alabama, by R.L. Smith, J.M. Davis, J. Sacks, P. Speckman and P. Styer. Environmetrics 11, 719-743 (2000). pdf file

Threshold dependence of mortality effects for fine and coarse particles in Phoenix, Arizona, by R.L. Smith, Y. Kim, M. Fuentes and D. Spitzner. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 50, 1367-1379 (2000). pdf file

Spatial statistics in environmental science. In Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal Processing, edited by W.J. Fitzgerald, R.L. Smith, A.T. Walden and P.C. Young, Cambridge University Press, pp 152-183 (2000). pdf file

Estimation of regional trends in sulfur dioxide over the eastern United States, by D.M. Holland, V. De Oliveira, L.H. Cox and R.L. Smith. Environmetrics 11, 373-393 (2000). pdf file

1999 Preprints

Reader Reaction: On a Likelihood-Based Goodness-of-Fit Test of the Beta-Binomial Model, by S. T. Garren, R. L. Smith and W. W. Piegorsch. Biometrics 56, 947-949 (2000), pdf file

Bootstrap goodness-of-fit test for the beta-binomial model, by S. T. Garren, R. L. Smith and W. W. Piegorsch. Journal of Applied Statistics 28, 561-571 (2001). pdf file

Trends in Rainfall Extremes by R.L. Smith. First version, May 1999. pdf file

Accounting for multiple pollutants in pollution-mortality studies, by Yuntae Kim, Dan Spitzner, Zhengjun Zhang, Richard L. Smith and Montserrat Fuentes. Presented at Baltimore JSM, August 1999. Published in 1999 ASA Proceedings (Biometrics Section). pdf file

Older Preprints

Human health effects of environmental pollution in the atmosphere, by Richard L. Smith, Jerry M. Davis and Paul Speckman. Draft paper, subsequently published as Chapter 6 of Statistics in the Environment 4: Statistical Aspects of Health and the Environment, edited by V. Barnett, A. Stein and F. Turkman. John Wiley, Chichester, 91-115.

Exact transition probabilities for the independence Metropolis sampler, by Richard L. Smith and Luke Tierney

Airborne particulate matter and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama by Jerry M. Davis, Jerome Sacks, Nancy Saltzmann, Richard L. Smith and Patricia Styer. Preprint, November 1996.

Estimating nonstationary spatial correlations , by Richard L. Smith. June 1996.

Characterization and estimation of the multivariate extremal index by R.L. Smith and I. Weissman. December 1996.

Predictive Inference, Rare Events and Hierarchical Models, by Richard L. Smith.

Bayesian and frequentist approaches to parametric predictive inference.

Rejoinder to the discussion

A Bayesian approach to modelling spatial-temporal precipitation data by R.L. Smith and P.J. Robinson (1995), Proceedings of the Sixth International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Galway, Ireland.

Joint versus Marginal Estimation for Bivariate Extremes by D. Shi, R.L. Smith and S. Coles (1992). Unpublished.

Max-Stable Processes and Spatial Extremes by R.L. Smith (1990). Unpublished.

Regional Estimation from Spatially Dependent Data by R.L. Smith (1990). Unpublished.

A Survey of Nonregular Problems by R.L. Smith (1989). Proceedings of the 47th Session of the International Statistical Institute.

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